{"id":7104,"date":"2026-05-16T17:12:50","date_gmt":"2026-05-16T09:12:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/t.n-years.com\/?p=7104"},"modified":"2026-05-16T17:12:50","modified_gmt":"2026-05-16T09:12:50","slug":"%e4%b8%8d%e5%90%8c%e8%a1%8c%e4%b8%9a%e7%9a%84%e4%bc%b0%e5%80%bc%e6%a8%a1%e5%9e%8b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/t.n-years.com\/?p=7104","title":{"rendered":"\u4e0d\u540c\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u6a21\u578b"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u4e0d\u540c\u4ea7\u4e1a\uff0c\u4f30\u503c\u6a21\u578b\u5dee\u5f02\u5176\u5b9e\u975e\u5e38\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u4e3a\uff1a<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u4e0d\u540c\u884c\u4e1a\u8d5a\u94b1\u65b9\u5f0f\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u540c\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>\u6709\u7684\u9760\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u7a33\u5b9a\uff08\u516c\u7528\u4e8b\u4e1a\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u6709\u7684\u9760\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u9ad8\u589e\u957f\uff08AI\/SaaS\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u6709\u7684\u9760\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u8d44\u4ea7\uff08\u94f6\u884c\/\u5730\u4ea7\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u6709\u7684\u9760\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u5468\u671f\uff08\u7164\u70ad\/\u94a2\u94c1\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u6240\u4ee5\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>\u5e02\u573a\u4f1a\u7528\u4e0d\u540c\u4f30\u503c\u6846\u67b6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u5f88\u591a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6700\u5bb9\u6613\u8e29\u5751\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff1a<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u7528\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u65b9\u6cd5\u770b\u884c\u4e1a\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>\u6bd4\u5982\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u7528 PE \u770b\u5468\u671f\u80a1<\/li>\n<li>\u7528 PB \u770b\u4e92\u8054\u7f51<\/li>\n<li>\u7528 DCF \u770b\u4e8f\u635f\u521d\u521b\u516c\u53f8<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u5931\u771f\u3002<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h1>\u4e00\u3001\u94f6\u884c\/\u4fdd\u9669 \u2014\u2014 PB + ROE<\/h1>\n<p>\u4ee3\u8868\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u62db\u5546\u94f6\u884c<\/li>\n<li>Industrial and Commercial Bank of China<\/li>\n<li>Ping An Insurance<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u6838\u5fc3\uff1a<\/p>\n<pre><code class=\"language-text\">\u51c0\u8d44\u4ea7\u80fd\u521b\u9020\u591a\u5c11\u6536\u76ca<\/code><\/pre>\n<p>\u91cd\u70b9\u6307\u6807\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>PB\uff08\u5e02\u51c0\u7387\uff09<\/li>\n<li>ROE<\/li>\n<li>\u4e0d\u826f\u7387<\/li>\n<li>\u62e8\u5907\u8986\u76d6\u7387<\/li>\n<li>\u8d44\u672c\u5145\u8db3\u7387<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u7ecf\u5178\u6846\u67b6\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>PB\\approx\\frac{ROE}{r-g}<\/p>\n<p>\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e0d\u7528 PE\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u4e3a\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u94f6\u884c\u5229\u6da6\u6ce2\u52a8\u5927<\/li>\n<li>\u4f1a\u8ba1\u5904\u7406\u590d\u6742<\/li>\n<li>\u6838\u5fc3\u662f\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<h1>\u4e8c\u3001\u6d88\u8d39\u80a1 \u2014\u2014 PE + \u54c1\u724c\u58c1\u5792<\/h1>\n<p>\u4ee3\u8868\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Kweichow Moutai<\/li>\n<li>Coca-Cola<\/li>\n<li>Procter &amp; Gamble<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u7279\u70b9\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u7a33\u5b9a<\/li>\n<li>\u54c1\u724c\u62a4\u57ce\u6cb3\u5f3a<\/li>\n<li>\u5468\u671f\u6027\u5f31<\/li>\n<li>\u957f\u671f\u7a33\u5b9a\u589e\u957f<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u6838\u5fc3\uff1a<\/p>\n<pre><code class=\"language-text\">\u957f\u671f\u76c8\u5229\u80fd\u529b<\/code><\/pre>\n<p>\u5e38\u7528\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>PE<\/li>\n<li>DCF<\/li>\n<li>ROIC<\/li>\n<li>\u81ea\u7531\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u6d88\u8d39\u80a1\u6700\u5927\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\uff1a<\/p>\n<pre><code class=\"language-text\">\u5229\u6da6\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027<\/code><\/pre>\n<p>\u6240\u4ee5\uff1a<br \/>\n\u5e02\u573a\u613f\u610f\u7ed9\u9ad8 PE\u3002<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h1>\u4e09\u3001\u79d1\u6280\u6210\u957f\u80a1 \u2014\u2014 DCF + \u589e\u957f\u7387<\/h1>\n<p>\u4ee3\u8868\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>NVIDIA<\/li>\n<li>Amazon<\/li>\n<li>Tesla<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u6838\u5fc3\uff1a<\/p>\n<pre><code class=\"language-text\">\u672a\u6765\u5229\u6da6\u7206\u53d1\u80fd\u529b<\/code><\/pre>\n<p>\u5173\u952e\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>\u73b0\u5728\u5229\u6da6\u4e0d\u91cd\u8981\uff0c<br \/>\n\u672a\u6765\u5229\u6da6\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5e38\u770b\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u6536\u5165\u589e\u901f<\/li>\n<li>TAM\uff08\u603b\u5e02\u573a\u7a7a\u95f4\uff09<\/li>\n<li>\u6bdb\u5229\u7387<\/li>\n<li>FCF<\/li>\n<li>PEG<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u7ecf\u5178\uff1a<\/p>\n<pre><code class=\"language-text\">\u9ad8\u589e\u957f + \u9ad8\u6298\u73b0\u654f\u611f<\/code><\/pre>\n<p>\u6240\u4ee5\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>\u5229\u7387\u4e00\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c<br \/>\n\u6210\u957f\u80a1\u4f30\u503c\u6700\u5bb9\u6613\u5d29\u3002<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h1>\u56db\u3001\u534a\u5bfc\u4f53 \u2014\u2014 \u5468\u671f + \u6280\u672f\u4ee3\u5dee<\/h1>\n<p>\u4ee3\u8868\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company<\/li>\n<li>ASML<\/li>\n<li>Advanced Micro Devices<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u534a\u5bfc\u4f53\u6bd4\u8f83\u7279\u6b8a\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>\u540c\u65f6\u6709\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u79d1\u6280\u6210\u957f<\/li>\n<li>\u5236\u9020\u4e1a<\/li>\n<li>\u5468\u671f\u6027<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u6240\u4ee5\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0d\u80fd\u53ea\u770b PE\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f4e PE \u53ef\u80fd\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u5468\u671f\u9876\u90e8<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u9ad8 PE \u53cd\u800c\u53ef\u80fd\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u5468\u671f\u5e95\u90e8<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\u91cd\u70b9\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u884c\u4e1a\u5468\u671f<\/li>\n<li>\u4ea7\u80fd<\/li>\n<li>ASP\uff08\u552e\u4ef7\uff09<\/li>\n<li>\u6280\u672f\u4ee3\u5dee<\/li>\n<li>CapEx<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<h1>\u4e94\u3001\u5468\u671f\u80a1 \u2014\u2014 PB + \u5468\u671f\u4f4d\u7f6e<\/h1>\n<p>\u4ee3\u8868\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u7164\u70ad<\/li>\n<li>\u94a2\u94c1<\/li>\n<li>\u822a\u8fd0<\/li>\n<li>\u5316\u5de5<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u7279\u70b9\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>\u5229\u6da6\u6ce2\u52a8\u5de8\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6700\u5371\u9669\uff1a<\/p>\n<pre><code class=\"language-text\">\u4f4ePE\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u6700\u5371\u9669<\/code><\/pre>\n<p>\u56e0\u4e3a\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>\u5229\u6da6\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u5386\u53f2\u6700\u9ad8\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e3e\u4f8b\uff1a<\/p>\n<pre><code class=\"language-text\">PE = 2\n\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u8d85\u4fbf\u5b9c<\/code><\/pre>\n<p>\u4f46\u53ef\u80fd\uff1a<br \/>\n\u660e\u5e74\u5229\u6da6\u8dcc 80%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6240\u4ee5\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>\u5468\u671f\u80a1\u6838\u5fc3\uff1a<\/p>\n<pre><code class=\"language-text\">\u770b\u4f9b\u9700\u5468\u671f\n\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u9759\u6001PE<\/code><\/pre>\n<hr \/>\n<h1>\u516d\u3001\u5730\u4ea7 \u2014\u2014 NAV\uff08\u51c0\u8d44\u4ea7\u6298\u4ef7\uff09<\/h1>\n<p>\u4ee3\u8868\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>China Vanke<\/li>\n<li>Longfor Group<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u6838\u5fc3\uff1a<\/p>\n<pre><code class=\"language-text\">\u571f\u5730\u548c\u8d44\u4ea7\u503c\u591a\u5c11\u94b1<\/code><\/pre>\n<p>\u5e38\u7528\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>NAV<\/li>\n<li>\u571f\u50a8\u8d28\u91cf<\/li>\n<li>\u6760\u6746\u7387<\/li>\n<li>\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u5730\u4ea7\u672c\u8d28\uff1a<\/p>\n<pre><code class=\"language-text\">\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u6e38\u620f<\/code><\/pre>\n<hr \/>\n<h1>\u4e03\u3001\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u5e73\u53f0 \u2014\u2014 \u7528\u6237\u751f\u6001\u4f30\u503c<\/h1>\n<p>\u4ee3\u8868\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Tencent<\/li>\n<li>Meta Platforms<\/li>\n<li>Alphabet<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u6838\u5fc3\uff1a<\/p>\n<pre><code class=\"language-text\">\u7528\u6237\u89c4\u6a21 + \u7f51\u7edc\u6548\u5e94<\/code><\/pre>\n<p>\u5e38\u770b\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>DAU\/MAU<\/li>\n<li>ARPU<\/li>\n<li>\u5e7f\u544a\u53d8\u73b0<\/li>\n<li>\u4e91\u4e1a\u52a1<\/li>\n<li>AI\u80fd\u529b<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u516c\u53f8\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>\u524d\u671f\u53ef\u80fd\u5229\u6da6\u4e0d\u9ad8\uff0c<br \/>\n\u4f46\u751f\u6001\u4ef7\u503c\u6781\u5f3a\u3002<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h1>\u516b\u3001\u533b\u836f\/\u521b\u65b0\u836f \u2014\u2014 \u6982\u7387\u4f30\u503c<\/h1>\n<p>\u4ee3\u8868\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Eli Lilly<\/li>\n<li>Novo Nordisk<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u521b\u65b0\u836f\u5f88\u7279\u6b8a\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>\u5f88\u591a\u65f6\u5019\uff1a<\/p>\n<pre><code class=\"language-text\">\u4f30\u503c = \u7ba1\u7ebf\u6210\u529f\u6982\u7387<\/code><\/pre>\n<p>\u91cd\u70b9\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u4e34\u5e8a\u6570\u636e<\/li>\n<li>FDA\u5ba1\u6279<\/li>\n<li>\u5e02\u573a\u7a7a\u95f4<\/li>\n<li>\u4e13\u5229\u671f<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u4e00\u4e2a\u836f\u5931\u8d25\uff1a<br \/>\n\u5e02\u503c\u53ef\u80fd\u8170\u65a9\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e00\u4e2a\u836f\u6210\u529f\uff1a<br \/>\n\u5e02\u503c\u53ef\u80fd\u7ffb\u6570\u500d\u3002<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h1>\u4e5d\u3001\u6700\u6838\u5fc3\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u601d\u7ef4<\/h1>\n<p>\u4f60\u4ee5\u540e\u770b\u5230\u884c\u4e1a\uff0c<br \/>\n\u5148\u95ee\uff1a<\/p>\n<pre><code class=\"language-text\">\u5b83\u5230\u5e95\u9760\u4ec0\u4e48\u8d5a\u94b1\uff1f<\/code><\/pre>\n<p>\u518d\u51b3\u5b9a\uff1a<\/p>\n<pre><code class=\"language-text\">\u5e94\u8be5\u7528\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f30\u503c\u65b9\u6cd5<\/code><\/pre>\n<p>\u8fd9\u662f\uff1a<br \/>\n\u4ece\u201c\u770b\u6307\u6807\u201d<br \/>\n\u8fdb\u5165\u201c\u7406\u89e3\u5546\u4e1a\u6a21\u5f0f\u201d\u7684\u5173\u952e\u4e00\u6b65\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u771f\u6b63\u9876\u7ea7\u6295\u8d44\u8005\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0d\u662f\u80cc PE\/PB\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u800c\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u7406\u89e3\u6bcf\u4e2a\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u94b1\u662f\u600e\u4e48\u6765\u7684\u3001<br \/>\n\u98ce\u9669\u5728\u54ea\u91cc\u3001<br \/>\n\u589e\u957f\u4ece\u54ea\u91cc\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u4e0d\u540c\u4ea7\u4e1a\uff0c\u4f30\u503c\u6a21\u578b\u5dee\u5f02\u5176\u5b9e\u975e\u5e38\u5927\u3002 \u56e0\u4e3a\uff1a \u4e0d\u540c\u884c\u4e1a\u8d5a\u94b1\u65b9\u5f0f\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u540c\u3002 \u6709\u7684\u9760\uff1a \u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u7a33\u5b9a\uff08\u516c\u7528\u4e8b\u4e1a\uff09 \u6709\u7684&#8230; <\/p>\n<div class=\"read-more navbutton\"><a href=\"https:\/\/t.n-years.com\/?p=7104\">\u9605\u8bfb\u66f4\u591a<i class=\"fa fa-angle-double-right\"><\/i><\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[162],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7104","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-162"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/t.n-years.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7104","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/t.n-years.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/t.n-years.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/t.n-years.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/t.n-years.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7104"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/t.n-years.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7104\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7105,"href":"https:\/\/t.n-years.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7104\/revisions\/7105"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/t.n-years.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7104"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/t.n-years.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7104"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/t.n-years.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7104"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}